[Peetwo]

From the sublime back to the ridiculous.

When 370 was reported missing and Australia went in to bat – I thought Bully.  AMSA and the Orion’s quickly on the job; amongst the worlds finest, in – out, get the job done, home in time for tea.  Then of course the ‘thick plottened’ and it became a complex matter, accompanied by the usual media confusion and speculation; it happens, such is life.  No matter a thousand theories were generated, gods alone know how many ‘expert’ talking heads were paid for their dubious services and the party rolled on, and on, and on.  All was ‘routine’ until Dolan pushed his way to the front of the clamour.  This will end in tears, for certain sure, thought I; tears of operational anguish, of practical incompetence and of political fallout flavour.

How could anyone put Dolan ‘in charge’?  The wretched man was up to his fetlocks in the Pel-Air debacle, subject of Senate censure and despised by the aviation community as the man who was too shiftless to raise a tiny ‘black-box’ from less than ten fathoms, in a known (buoyed) location, from clear, sheltered water. A dishonourable discharge should have been issued, not an all expenses paid trip to KL.  Even some of the more ambivalent PAIN associates raised an eyebrow or two when Dolan stepped up to the crease – as opening batsman.  To paraphrase the BRB “WTD is the government thinking, this cannot possibly end well”.  Not unless a willing scapegoat was required; one to run with hares and hunt with the hounds. If that was the prime objective then indeed the government did select the right man, with a proven track record of pliant ‘cooperation’.  

It seems all the chickens have come home to roost; what with Hoody telling the world that there is ‘reliable’ data and his #1 go-to man appearing on ‘telly’ acknowledging that the much touted ATSB ‘theory’ could possibly be wrong; so, what else can turn into government embarrassing worms? Well there’s Albo for starters – that’s right, he finally has done something for aviation – even if his motivation was a Wong way of scoring political points. It matters not: for points are points to Albo; hypocrisy is not a concept he grasps too well and he will push. Well within his rights to demand WTD results have been achieved, considering the money spent on what looks very much like a flawed, misdirected search – under his appointed ‘guru’ of Air Transport Safety.  The irony will be lost on Albo as he gets his licks in.  At least now ‘matters aeronautical’ have become ‘political’.

Which leaves us where? A large incoming rotten egg for the government to deal with (tick) a political bun-fight (tick) the derision of every accident investigating authority (tick) the increased lack of faith in and belief of the ATSB as a viable, credible body (tick) a massive bill (tick) and no bloody aircraft (tick).  There are a few more boxes there which could be ticked; but what the hell.  I bet old Vlad is laughing his socks off while stroking his still unruffled ‘shirt front’ eh? Tony ?.

Aye well, at least for the next little while we can still drink the water in our little third world backwater; meanwhile, the Malaysian mission dances it’s way out of town, drinking the bubbly we, the tax payers, provided.  Terrific.  We can blow another small fortune on yet another inquiry into a predetermined outcome.  Great job; Oh well done Australia and thank you Beaker.

I knew I should have turned left at Albuquerque; heigh ho.

Toot toot.

Yet more instalments to the DOI archives -

Ventus nails it -

..So, I think that what they need to do, starting as soon as possible (do not wait until March 2017), is this:-

1. Since we only have 5 drifterons (note to ATSB - you really do need a couple of dozen at least) seed them as 5 sets of "mated pairs", i.e. (a drifteron and a Global Drifter Buoy) together, as stated above, on the arc, at intervals of 5 degrees of latitude, ie, at 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 degrees south, and track them for a month.
2. During the month, the drifteron will obviously diverge from it's "spouse" GDB.
3. At the end of 30 days, "Let the drifteron drift", and go and grab it's spouse GDB, and bring it back to it's mated drifteron, and drop it in beside it again.
4. Repeat the process every month.
5. Over "x" months, we will get an actual drift track for each of the drifterons themselves, plus, hopefully, they will also be able to build up a reasonable idea of how to calibrate the existing database of GDB's.

That will give us (assuming they start in October 2016), 5 months of data to work with up to March 2017.

By that stage, the drift models of GDB's should have been calibrated well enough to have a pretty good idea of where the "actual flaperon" entered the water.

Therefore, in March 2017, drop all 5 pairs in a 5 star pattern centered on that point, with a radius of 60 nautical miles, and "observe".

Okay now read the following courtesy of the Oz yesterday and again especially the part in bold... :

Replicas of debris to track MH370


Replicas of the MH370 flaperon that was found at Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean.

• ..The search team has constructed several replica flaperons, fitted with transmitters, which will be set adrift alongside free-floating buoys. Scientists will plot courses and speed of both.The first of these tests will be carried out off Tasmania. CSIRO scientists will then add to the new information to known drift patterns of the buoys.They believe that will give a better idea of where the real ­flaperon began its journey in the seconds after MH370 hit the water...

From Ken Staubin who has painstakingly compiled a reverse drift model for each individual piece of - suspected &/or confirmed - MH370 debris found so far: The Location of MH370 - A Reverse Drift Study Based On Debris Found

Next from Mike Chillit:

Where SIO Drift REALLY Goes

Posted on August 28, 2016 by Mike Chillit — Leave a reply

Meanwhile in our little patch? - Chillit perfectly sums up the current embarrassing status quo..

"..There have also been a handful of drift studies out of Australia’s CSIRO, ATSB, and one of its minor colleges in the Perth Area. I consider each of the Australian studies shameful examples of in-house bias. They all insist the current search is in the “right” place. Not one of them is credible. They were undertaken for the sole purpose of justifying Australia’s bull-headed determination to search a part of the ocean the plane could not possibly be. No one is going to feel sorry for Australia’s insistence on going it alone. It should be incredibly embarrassed and never allowed to forget the damage it has done to genuine interests in finding the plane in a timely manner..."

   
Isn't it amazing how much one bald headed, beard on/beard off Muppet has tarnished our international standing as a fellow signatory state to ICAO...

TICK...TOCK Dazzling Dazza, TICK...TOCK indeed!


MTF...P2

Ps In the lead up to Supp Estimates slated for October I was perusing the Senate Orders page - see HERE - for the 2015 calendar year.  I then referenced the ATSB spreadsheet:

Australian Transport Safety Bureau: 2015 Calendar Year - Download

 
I then referred to any tender/expense related to the MH370 SIO search. For which there was three entries - Fugro Survey PTY LTD; Phoenix International Holdings Inc; and Minter Ellison (Law Firm). These three entities invoiced the ATSB in the year 2015 for a staggering combined total of $136,707,597 Australian dollars. I can just imagine Beakers eye balls bulging when all of those dollars were going in & out of the ATSB coffers...