[Peetwo]

Ghost who walks & talks beyond Reason-

Off the selfie-King & miniscule Dazzling Dazza's thread, a full boiler post from the Ferryman... :

Full Steam GD.  Pour it On.

Damn the guns and hammer the engines – we have an urgent pick up and delivery mission.

Made a routine ‘how gozit’ call Karen Casey, see what was new and how things were progressing. On the positive side Sen. Cameron has taken an interest in the matter and there are positive signs from that. Here endeth the good news.

To business: stunned is the only way I can describe my reaction to the following; incredulous followed, then fury. Plain old fashioned outrage, in spades, redoubled.  It goes like this, paraphrased for brevity.

KC rings ATSB – Walker, to see when the second ATSB report may emerge from deep sleep chamber.

Walkers response was unbelievable; but notes and a statutory declaration take the matter to truth. In short, he was rude and aggressive. Statements like “Karen, just what do hope to gain from this report” “What do you want to get out of it”.  “It is your fault there is a delay”.  The whole debacle seems to be Karen’s fault all of a sudden and the ATSB is offended; etc. grossly miffed.

It was not Karen’s fault the aircraft ditched; it was not Karen’s fault she got badly hurt and it most certainly was not Karen’s fault that the ATSB and CASA got caught sweeping the whole thing under the table; nor was it Karen’s fault that Albo dived out of the back door as soon as the smoke alarum went off.  Karen had little to do with the Senate findings and the pasting dished out to both ATSB and CASA was well deserved. They got away very lightly, considering.

None of this is any excuse for being rude to anyone. Who the duck does Walker think he is? ATSB should be calling for his resignation.  No matter who rings with a genuine concern no one should be treated in the manner Karen was.

What chance a honest report when the man in charge turns out to be a coward and a bully?  Those types, when under pressure and attempting to justify that which cannot be justified habitually turn out to be not only disingenuous but happy to offset the blame to anyone else they can.

If the Walker attitude reflects the ‘new’ ATSB approach to victims of air accident then it is time for the minister to step in. I know that had I spoken to anyone in the workplace in that manner, my head would be following my arse out of the door before I could say ‘Sorry’.

If Walker won’t resign, then the minister needs to act, swiftly.  Fair warning, this is not going away.

A metaphorical head in basket is demanded: I don’t care how it gets there.

I cannot properly express the full measure of contempt and disgust this story has generated. The Pel-Air charade was a national disgrace; mentally kicking an accident victim when they are down and struggling to get through life with pain and grief is beneath contempt, particularly when the thread which keeps Karen attached to this world is tenuous, even on a good day.

Lets go and pick up this prick GD; seems he is late for his appointment with the Boss.

More to follow - bet your life on it.

Toot – bloody – toot.

As you would expect when someone has just been bumped up to PAIN public enemy No1.; down the pipe came the order for me to cyber-troll and re-visit the PAIN archives for any scurrilous dirt on the infamous black-box whisperer and the man who believes the causal chain for accidents, for example QF1's embarrassing runway overrun at Bangkok in 1999; or the Lockhart River tragedy, can be simply explained through a 'cloud association' diagram.

Here is Walker's cloud diagram for the Lockhart River causal chain:


 

 (Hint: take note of dates) This is where it starts to get interesting because that diagram was extracted from a research paper that was co-authored by Walker and the former ATSB CEO Kym Bills, which was subsequently published in 2008 (P2 - note the research paper title): Reference - AR2007-053 

Analysis, Causality and Proof in Safety Investigations

Summary

The quality of a safety investigation's analysis activities plays a critical role in determining whether the investigation is successful in enhancing safety. However, safety investigations require analysis of complex sets of data and situations where the available data can be vague, incomplete and misleading. Despite its importance, complexity, and reliance on investigators' judgements, analysis has been a neglected area in terms of standards, guidance and training of investigators in most organisations that conduct safety investigations.

To address this situation, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) developed a comprehensive investigation analysis framework. The present report provides an overview of the ATSB investigation analysis framework and concepts such as the determination of contribution and standard of proof. The report concludes by examining the nature of concerns that have been raised regarding the ATSB analysis framework and the ATSB's consideration of these concerns.

The ATSB believes that its investigation analysis framework is well suited to its role as an independent, no-blame safety investigation body. It is hoped and expected that ongoing development and provision of information about the framework can help the safety investigation field as a whole consider some important issues and help develop the best means of conducting safety investigations to enhance future safety.

Type: Research and Analysis Report
Author(s): Michael B. Walker and Kym M. Bills
Series number: 2007053
Publication date: 26 June 2008
Publication number: 08196
Related: Human factors
 



Last update 07 April 2014

In the lead up to that research paper Walker also made a presentation to an ISASI seminar in Mexico 2006 - see page 10 HERE:

...In recent years, the ATSB and other safety investigation agencies
successfully used the Reason Model of organizational accidents
(Reason 1990, 1997) to guide the analysis phase of some investigations.
Although the Reason Model is widely accepted, some
of its features limit its usefulness. The ATSB has adapted the Model
to better suit the requirements of safety investigation and to make
the Model more applicable to a wider range of investigations.
The primary changes to the Reason Model include broadening
the scope beyond a focus on human factors, and to more functionally
define the components of the model so as to reduce overlaps and
confusions when categorizing a factor. In particular, ATSB’s model
clearly distinguishes between the things an organization puts in place
at the operational level to minimise risk (i.e., “risk controls” such as
training, procedures, warning alarms, shift rosters) and the conditions
that influence the effectiveness of these risk controls (i.e., “organizational
influences” such as risk-management processes, training
needs analysis processes, regulatory surveillance)... (P2 - Hmm...that sounds familiar -  
)

And that is when I had a light bulb moment because some of the wording in that Dr W presentation and his 2007 report, reminded me of a tabled ATSB email from the Senate Inquiry which always perplexed me as being somewhat out of context and in conflict with other ATSB evidence tabled...



 

 
Now I know it is not a 100% guaranteed that the redacted document is from Dr W but if it is not him then it is certainly one of his BASR converts...  

Therefore I now believe that Dr W is in fact the bureau version of Hoodoo Voodoo (i.e. Dr A) and was the primary motivator for Beaker launching and adopting his 'beyond (all sensible) Reason' methodology. Which ironically IMO means Dr W is part of the 'causal chain' in the diabolical original Norfolk Island VH-NGA ditching accident investigation and the now approaching 2 year re-investigation...

Combined with the discovery that Dr W is also a Sociopath (Ferryman post) and speaks with forked tongue, has to represent the biggest conflict of interest for this parasite to be anywhere near the PelAir re-investigation, let alone the Investigator in Charge...FDS!    


MTF?- Definitely...P2