Less Noise and More Signal - Printable Version

Less Noise and More Signal - Printable Version

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RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Tinkicker - 08-14-2015

(08-14-2015, 04:18 PM)P7_TOM Wrote: Thanks TK – solid, good sense always welcome. A rarity when MH370 is mentioned. I’m pleased the French are not shooting ‘from the hip’ and a dialogue like yours explains why. Problem of course for us is being ‘bloody pilots’ the finesse of ‘investigation’ and the subtleties of complex ‘engineering’ are a mystery to most. I dare say the wise French owls will give us detailed analysis; in one form another , just as soon as they are sure. Nice to know that at last, no faeary tales will be spun; or, phoney ‘experts’ will be polishing and spinning.

"I’m pleased the French are not shooting ‘from the hip’ and a dialogue like yours explains why."

Have a lot of respect for the work of the BEA. I've no doubt that their analysis will be thorough, with no stone left unturned.

Part of the problem regarding MH370, is the "phony" experts. People over-claiming expertise & providing information that is consistently wrong. Generally speaking, it appears that people's perceptions of expertise is somewhat relative. Come across like you're educated & know something (even if you don't possess relevant quals/expertise), & you'll likely fool many. But for those of us who work in the industry, it is often much easier to see past all the puffery & BS. Dodgy

Just sayin! Rolleyes

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Peetwo - 08-15-2015

(08-14-2015, 05:32 PM)Tinkicker Wrote:
(08-14-2015, 04:18 PM)P7_TOM Wrote: Thanks TK – solid, good sense always welcome. A rarity when MH370 is mentioned. I’m pleased the French are not shooting ‘from the hip’ and a dialogue like yours explains why. Problem of course for us is being ‘bloody pilots’ the finesse of ‘investigation’ and the subtleties of complex ‘engineering’ are a mystery to most. I dare say the wise French owls will give us detailed analysis; in one form another , just as soon as they are sure. Nice to know that at last, no faeary tales will be spun; or, phoney ‘experts’ will be polishing and spinning.

"I’m pleased the French are not shooting ‘from the hip’ and a dialogue like yours explains why."

Have a lot of respect for the work of the BEA. I've no doubt that their analysis will be thorough, with no stone left unturned.

Part of the problem regarding MH370, is the "phony" experts. People over-claiming expertise & providing information that is consistently wrong. Generally speaking, it appears that people's perceptions of expertise is somewhat relative. Come across like you're educated & know something (even if you don't possess relevant quals/expertise), & you'll likely fool many. But for those of us who work in the industry, it is often much easier to see past all the puffery & BS.

Just sayin!

Yes excellent stuff TK & while we're at it pardon my ignorance on the 'nose rib' hole etc. I am but a simple knuckledragger. Wink

While on the subject of 'phony' or 'wannabe' experts it is worth reflecting on a post of mine from early back in 'the search for IP' and may help to explain why members of PAIN have such concerns that the current crop of executive managers/commissioners at the ATSB are in charge of overseeing the MH370 SIO deep sea search - #post15:

Quote:While I'm raiding that UP thread I thought it worthwhile regurgitating 4 posts off page 2 that partly explains the slide of the bureau. It is for mine extremely sad that the BASI/ATSB has gone from a small, poorly resourced air safety watchdog that used to punch well above its weight and was held in high esteem throughout the aviation safety fraternity worldwide; to an insipid non-independent AAI that panders to the political/commercial interests of various DIPs to higher profile investigations, while playing submissive lapdog to the big R regulator behemoth CASA...

MTF...P2

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Peetwo - 08-15-2015

(08-15-2015, 11:24 AM)Peetwo Wrote:
(08-14-2015, 05:32 PM)Tinkicker Wrote:
(08-14-2015, 04:18 PM)P7_TOM Wrote: Thanks TK – solid, good sense always welcome. A rarity when MH370 is mentioned. I’m pleased the French are not shooting ‘from the hip’ and a dialogue like yours explains why. Problem of course for us is being ‘bloody pilots’ the finesse of ‘investigation’ and the subtleties of complex ‘engineering’ are a mystery to most. I dare say the wise French owls will give us detailed analysis; in one form another , just as soon as they are sure. Nice to know that at last, no faeary tales will be spun; or, phoney ‘experts’ will be polishing and spinning.

"I’m pleased the French are not shooting ‘from the hip’ and a dialogue like yours explains why."

Have a lot of respect for the work of the BEA. I've no doubt that their analysis will be thorough, with no stone left unturned.

Part of the problem regarding MH370, is the "phony" experts. People over-claiming expertise & providing information that is consistently wrong. Generally speaking, it appears that people's perceptions of expertise is somewhat relative. Come across like you're educated & know something (even if you don't possess relevant quals/expertise), & you'll likely fool many. But for those of us who work in the industry, it is often much easier to see past all the puffery & BS.

Just sayin!

Yes excellent stuff TK & while we're at it pardon my ignorance on the 'nose rib' hole etc. I am but a simple knuckledragger.

While on the subject of 'phony' or 'wannabe' experts it is worth reflecting on a post of mine from early back in 'the search for IP' and may help to explain why members of PAIN have such concerns that the current crop of executive managers/commissioners at the ATSB are in charge of overseeing the MH370 SIO deep sea search - #post15:

Quote:While I'm raiding that UP thread I thought it worthwhile regurgitating 4 posts off page 2 that partly explains the slide of the bureau. It is for mine extremely sad that the BASI/ATSB has gone from a small, poorly resourced air safety watchdog that used to punch well above its weight and was held in high esteem throughout the aviation safety fraternity worldwide; to an insipid non-independent AAI that panders to the political/commercial interests of various DIPs to higher profile investigations, while playing submissive lapdog to the big R regulator behemoth CASA...

Moving on and overnight Ben Sandilands put out another (IMO) excellent, thought provoking piece for consumption by dedicated MH370 followers - Surprise! Concrete slabs found in Maldives not from MH370

[/url]However for mine the most informative & thought provoking bit of that blog by far was (& continues to be) in the comments... Wink

Quote:[url=http://en.gravatar.com/site/signup/] Brock McEwen
Posted August 15, 2015 at 2:24 am |
Hi Ben – great piece, as always.

You mentioned CSIRO’s drift study, which you (correctly) describe as suggesting Réunion as a POSSIBLE first shoreline for MH370 debris. Here is my latest paper, aimed at trying to flesh out the (a priori) PROBABILITY that this would be so:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-r3yuaF2p72dk9ualY1bzNLVHc/view?usp=sharing

This means that, just like the radar non-detection of the southern leg of its flight path, the acoustic non-detection of its impact, search leadership’s inconsistency between decisions taken and what their own data supported, and the side-scan non-detection of its sunken debris, we must add non-detection of its floating debris on WA shores to the long list of coincidences proponents of the current search area must willfully ignore.

Tango
Posted August 15, 2015 at 3:03 am |
We may have to expand that to no island or continent unturned in the Malaysian unremitting search to create nonsense. (worse actually but I will leave it at that)
The other element is no one has taken a 777 with that weight and turned the engines off and seen what it does (terminal dive theory). Computers (simulators) are only as good as the input.

As they are not intended to work that way, the only way to see what a real aircraft would do is test it and then feed that info back into the algorithms.

Ergo, while I firmly believe they have the right area I also believe that any small mis-calculation in the ping data and assumptions as well as how the aircraft went down could put it far enough out of the arch that they will not find it.

No ones fault, they did their best with something that was never envisioned and its hodge podge at best.

Tango
Posted August 15, 2015 at 3:21 am |
And not to be outdone the Russian released a recording of the CIA plotting MH17 shoot down.
http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-russia-us-mh17-propaganda-tape-20150813-story.html

The dictatorship beat goes on.

Ben Sandilands
Posted August 15, 2015 at 8:11 am |
malcolmbmunro,
Have made just that point about AF447 many times. It took 22 months to locate the wreckage of a jet with an impact point known to within 10 kilometres and with a fully functional ACARS system (and a tragically dysfunctional trio of pilots in the cockpit).
The wreckage did not hide itself in the comlexities of the underwater terrain. It came down on an almost level and obstacle free abyssal plain.

Brock,
I think everything we learned from AF447′s discovery explains why nothing has been found in the south Indian Ocean so far. Similarly I agree with a widely held view in Australia that the coast line of Western Australia is so empty, and so remote, and very intricate in some areas, that it may well hold the skeletons of hundreds of shipwreck victims, a few dating back centuries, and some more recently from those seeking to arrive by boat. Over 1000 people are known to have drowned unobserved attempting to sail to Australia from Indonesia this century. Not a single piece of wreckage nor personal items have been recovered from some vessels that departed from that country with over 300 people on board.

As to radar, don’t believe the claims made about the brilliance of a national made system. It has never worked as intended. If I was unkind I’d compare it to the Maginot Line in France, except that it is pointed in the right direction, but functionally blind or unreliable, or even, according to some sources, so useless it is largely unmanned and switched off.

I have my suspicions about criminal activity on MH370 but no proof. My expectation is that more identifiable debris will be found somewhere and that the sunk wreckage will indeed be found more or less within the expected area, which is a bit like saying I expect something the size of a few shipping contains with specific contents will eventually be located somewhere in Texas, or the Sahara.

The more ‘far out’ scenarios about MH370 will end up being embarrassments, like fields southern Siberia that just happen to be the same size as the breadth and length of a 777-200.

As to how or why it happened, we just don’t have the crucial details we need to come up with anything compelling.

While we are there it is well worth taking the time to read the latest paper from Brock McEwan - here is an extract from that paper:

[Image: B1.jpg]

MTF...P2

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Tinkicker - 08-16-2015

Tango’s observations relating to flight simulator ‘fidelity’ are spot on! There is no doubt that flight simulators have become an indispensable tool for tech crew training. The down side, is that certain modelling limitations exist, and must be taken into account when attempting to use flight simulators as a ‘proving ground’ in investigations. From much of the chit-chat I’ve observed on social media and elsewhere, I’m not convinced that those limitations are widely known or understood.

While simulation sets out to ‘model’ the flight deck layout and behavior of an aircraft, the reality is that the aircraft doesn’t actually exist. Instead, it’s represented by groups of interrelated mathematical models, designed in an attempt to mimic systems functions and aircraft handling characteristics. They provide tech crews with the impression that they’re operating the real thing.

Flight simulators are constructed using design data from airframe manufacturers and equipment vendors. Their performance is later compared with flight test data (to the extent it’s available) with a view to demonstrating performance that’s in accordance with the aircraft. Designing models outside that flight test data ‘envelope’ is problematic, since it can only be viewed as an estimation of how the aircraft will respond. It’s not a guarantee.

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Kharon - 08-22-2015

The article – HERE – published on Paper- Li highlights some of the complexities surrounding the MH 370 search; not only from the accident investigator v judiciary perspective, but creeps into the murky realms of politics played in the rarefied atmosphere of international diplomacy, credibility and public perception.

It must be bad enough for anyone to loose a loved one in an air accident, of any kind but given the ‘mystery’, speculation, doubt and confused information, both official and media based, it must be a daily misery to those who wait for news.

Best we can do is hope for some sanity, probity and most of all hard evidence. Spare a thought today for those who wait..

.. Sad

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - aussie500 - 08-22-2015

Well they have one, maybe two pieces of hard evidence, not going to get more unless the ATSB pulls its head out of the sand and actually gets people to look in the right places.

They spent enough time telling everyone debris would not wash up on Australian shores, but on West Sumatra, where it was never going to wash up. How much debris was ignored, how much did they refuse to investigate because people could not prove it was from MH370 to get the investigators to investigate it.

And I would trust the french judiciary before I would trust a government run investigation that can be tied up in red tape and mislead so easily. Not that this lot seemed to have any real direction in the first place. AMSA deserted a search area for no good reason, the ATSB were April fools chasing false BB pings, who are still determined to stick to that 7th arc and make fools of themselves.

You wait, some oceanographer will work out the debris had to come from further south to spread out so much. And the limpets will just move further south on that 7th arc!

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Peetwo - 08-22-2015

(08-22-2015, 05:54 AM)kharon Wrote: The article – HERE – published on Paper- Li highlights some of the complexities surrounding the MH 370 search; not only from the accident investigator v judiciary perspective, but creeps into the murky realms of politics played in the rarefied atmosphere of international diplomacy, credibility and public perception.

It must be bad enough for anyone to loose a loved one in an air accident, of any kind but given the ‘mystery’, speculation, doubt and confused information, both official and media based, it must be a daily misery to those who wait for news.

Best we can do is hope for some sanity, probity and most of all hard evidence. Spare a thought today for those who wait..

..

Top catch "K".. Wink

Due (IMO) it's significance in the search for aviation accident investigative probity, both internationally but especially here in Oz with the present status quo of the ATSB, here it is in full:

Quote:MH370 debris exposes divisions over air crash investigations

By drifting on to Reunion Island, the barnacled remains of a Boeing wing part from the Malaysia Airlines jet have given the upper hand to a French judicial investigation, exposing for the second time this year how civil crash investigations struggle to compete with police-led probes.

A woman whose relative was aboard Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 holds a placard after police stopped protesting relatives from entering a road leading to the Malaysian embassy in Beijing on Aug 7, 2015. (Photo: REUTERS/Damir Sagolj)

PARIS: Air crash investigators risk being sidelined in a tussle to unlock the secrets of lost flight MH370, fuelling concerns that their role in making flying safer could be diminished.
By drifting on to Reunion Island, the barnacled remains of a Boeing wing part from the Malaysia Airlines jet have given the upper hand to a French judicial investigation, exposing for the second time this year how civil crash investigations struggle to compete with police-led probes.

For decades, reconstructions of disasters by specialist safety investigators have been seen as crucial to making aviation safer, with accident rates at historically low levels.

But in dozens of countries, notably France, they exist in uneasy co-habitation with separate criminal inquiries. Simmering tensions over the sharing of evidence between civil and judicial investigators came into the open after the crash of a Germanwings jet into the French Alps in March.

They are under scrutiny again after Indian Ocean currents deposited the "flaperon" from the missing Malaysia Airlines flight into the hands of judges investigating the suspected manslaughter of four French citizens out of 239 people on board.

How France handles both cases could have a wider impact given its influence over aviation safety worldwide and the similarity between its civil-law system and most other jurisdictions.

Its BEA safety investigation board is regularly called in to look at incidents because France is home to Airbus, which makes up 42 percent of the world jetliner fleet.
"Criminal investigation should not compromise the important role that air accident investigation plays in keeping flying safe," said Kevin Hiatt, safety chief at the International Air Transport Association, the trade association for airlines.

Supporters of the French system of parallel investigations say it prevents cover-ups, supports families and benefits from stronger powers of discovery.

Concerns about judicial interference may cut little ice with MH370 families who have been frustrated at the apparent lack of results from the civil investigation into the disappearance of the Kuala Lumpur to Beijing flight.

"This kind of closed, unjust, and totally inefficient investigation is really hard for me to understand," said Jiang Hui, a Chinese man whose mother was aboard Flight MH370.

NO BLAME APPORTIONED
Civil crash investigators follow United Nations guidelines from the International Civil Aviation Organization. Their sole aim is to help prevent future accidents by finding out causes.

"The idea has never been to establish who is the bad guy, for the simple reason that it does no good when it comes to improving safety," said Paul-Louis Arslanian, former director of France’s BEA air safety investigation agency. "It is better to understand why errors were committed and what prevented this being identified."

It is a rare example of an industry being granted a global remit to ensure its safe development. But the 70-year-old system must reckon with modern demands for stricter corporate liability and the social media storm generated by every crash.

Add to this the fact that human factors have become a priority as technology reduces mechanical vulnerabilities, and experts say the pressure to cast blame is greater than ever.

While families wait for clues about the missing jet, 17 months after MH370 mysteriously vanished, the flaperon risks being submerged once again by jurisdictional in-fighting.

It was recovered by the gendarmerie on the French island, a military force accountable to French judges leading the criminal probe and not to the BEA or its Malaysian counterparts.

Relations between the gendarmerie and BEA have been prickly for years and hit a new low hours after the Germanwings crash that killed 150 people.

In an unprecedented move, the BEA's current director was summoned to police offices to face questions about the speed at which it had shared just-deciphered cockpit recordings, according to several people familiar with the incident.

JUDICIAL CONTROL
Those tensions are fresh in the minds of those now handling the MH370 investigation. While prosecutors have pledged to share their findings in due course, a judicial source stressed the flaperon would remain under judicial control.

Experts from several international agencies were allowed to witness its inspection but only after a delay of several days and under a judge's supervision, and not on BEA premises.

"However you paint it, it gives the impression that the BEA and other investigators are working for the judiciary," said another former air crash investigator. "It is a power struggle and in the long term it may be damaging for credibility of crash investigators generally."

Malaysia played down any conflict between the judicial probe and its own civil investigation, of which the BEA is part. "They will go hand in hand. There's no clear distinction between their report and our report. Whatever they find they will add onto our investigation later," Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai told Reuters.

But experts say it is a further setback for the Southeast Asian nation which struggled to establish an independent investigation in the face of criticism, only to see the first physical piece of evidence fall into the possession of French judges who have been asserting primacy over air accidents.

That may in turn heap pressure on a landmark EU law designed to preserve a "balance" between judicial and civil probes.

"I get worried when I see that we are not advancing as quickly as we should, that we are going backwards or trampling on the confidence that should exist between different parties," said Arslanian, one of the architects of the 2010 regulation. "For now the trust between national and international partners is there, but you have to keep building it every day."

The debate about the blurring of judicial and civil roles could complicate efforts to improve safety by openly discussing problems in everyday operations.

"A lot of aviation professionals are fearful that by being frank to technical investigators they could end up in court," said Andreas Matteou, an Airbus A320 training captain. "The risk is that they will just fly on autopilot and share as little as possible."

The parallels are remarkable with the ATSB v CASA and their sharing/dissemination of mandatory/confidential incident reports. Especially under a big "R" regulator where the ridiculous, voluminous regs are written with strict liability penalties attached.

This was regarded by the Forsyth review panel as so much of a significant safety issue - & as outlined in the guiding 'Just Culture' principles of ICAO Annex 19 - that they issued recommendations to the Minister to urgently address.

Subsequently the Minister issued an expectation - in his 'Statement of Expectations' to CASA & ATSB - that was to address this safety issue.
Example expectation 8 from CASA SOE:

Quote:8. work closely with the ATSB to ensure continued arrangements are in place, consistent with the current Safety Information Policy Statement and informed by ‘just culture’ principles, for the appropriate sharing and use of safety information by CASA and the ATSB;

But I diverge.. Blush

Also hot off the MH370 news front, there was this courtesy of Jeff Wise (sorry "K".. Confused

)

Quote:French Report: Investigators Can’t Link Reunion Flaperon to MH370

– August 21, 2015Posted in: Aviation

I am grateful to reader @AM2, who early this morning alerted us to a report in the French website LaDepeche.fr stating that investigors who have been examining the flaperon found on Reunion have been unable to find any evidence linking it to MH370. Soon after, reader @Jay provided the translation below, which I’ve tweaked and edited using my high-school French and some online dictionaries. Thanks to both of you (and to Brock for his translation help)! Any corrections or suggestions from people who actually know the language would be very gratefully received.

MH370: At Balma, the Technical Investigation is Complete
The Toulouse experts of the Directorate General of Armaments have finished the survey of the flaperon found on Reunion. Nothing permits it to be 100% certified as belonging to MH370!

In Balma, near Toulouse, technical analysis of of the wing flaperon believed to belong to the Malaysia Airlines Boeing has ended. The Toulouse engineers have submitted their findings to the Paris Prosecutor’s Office, which is in charge of the judicial inquiry. At the moment none of their observations have been leaked. “The investigation team headed by the French to consider the flaperon concluded the first phase of its inspection work,” the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) announced in Sydney.

Circumstantial evidence
“French authorities will, in consultation with Malaysia, report on progress in due course,” added the ATSB. Indeed, the judicial authorities remain silent and refuse to comment. According to our information, the experts have found no compelling technical element that would certify 100% that this piece belongs to flight MH370. “The expert conclusions are only the technical part of the criminal investigation, which is still going on,” so the case cannot be considered closed. For now all that is certain is that the flaperon, which was transferred from the island of Reunion to Toulouse on August 5, corresponds to a moving part of a wing of the Boeing 777. A representative of the American manufacturer Boeing quickly confirmed that after arriving at the site of the DGA Aeronautical Technical Center in Balma. If the deputy prosecutor of the Republic of Paris has stated that there was a “very strong supposition” that the piece belonged to the plane of flight MH370, which disappeared 18 months ago, that is based on circumstantial evidence.

First, the piece belongs to the aircraft model corresponding to that of Malaysia Airlines, a Boeing 777. In addition, no other aircraft of this type except that of the Malaysian company were reported missing.

Also, the trajectory of the wing piece that ran aground on a beach in Reunion matches the sea currents that link the search area of the wreckage of the plane to the French overseas department. Finally, the shells found attached to the flaperon belong to a species endemic to the southern Indian Ocean where the unit is believed to have disappeared.

According to a Toulouse aeronautics expert who requested anonymity, the element of the wing would not have floated for several months at the water’s surface but would have drifted underwater a few meters deep. According to Jean-Paul Troadec, former chairman of the Bureau of Investigation and Analysis (BEA), the state of flaperon, even if it is not intact, indicates that there was no violent impact with the ocean surface. “If this had been the case with the MH370, one would expect much smaller debris than a flaperon,” said the expert.

COMMENT

A couple of observations from me, JW:

I find it odd that a piece of random debris would happen to have exactly neutral buoyancy, as floating for months just below the ocean surface would require. Unless it was tethered…

Reader @Jay raises the question: “What about the maintenance seal that Malaysia claimed 100% linked the part to MH370?” Likewise, no mention is made of the discrepencies that Boeing and NTSB officials reportedly found between the flaperon and Malaysia Airlines maintenance records, according to the New York Times. Hopefully the French will soon issue a report clearing up these issues.

Hmm...fascinating, is the Malaysian Government MH370 charade about to unravel - time will tell.. Sad

MTF..P2

Ps Sorry Aussie came over the top of you - good post by the way.. Wink

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Peetwo - 09-01-2015

MH370 lost in obfuscation & interpretation.. [Image: undecided.gif]

While we (again) continue to wait for word of confirmation of the true provenance of that flaperon, speculation has been rife in sections of the MSM, & lesser streamed media, on what indeed the 'passing strange' hold-up is... Huh

First from Maddie Stone, courtesy the New York magazine:

Quote:The Case of the MH370 Wing Segment Keeps Getting Weirder
Maddie Stone
Filed to: MH370
8/29/15 2:00pm

When a wing section of a Boeing 777 washed up on the Indian Ocean island of La Réunion last month, the Malaysian government quickly ascribed the part to missing Malaysian Airlines Flight 370. But an ongoing investigation has failed to verify this claim, and the story just keeps getting weirder.

Shortly after the flaperon washed up, Boeing engineers confirmed that the wing segment belongs to a 777. And MH370, which went missing in March of 2014, is the only 777 unaccounted for. So case closed, right?

Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak figured it was, and on August 5th, he released a statement announcing as much to the world. But minutes later, French investigator Serge Mackowiak countered the prime minister’s remarks, saying that more tests were needed to conclusively determine the wing segment’s origin. Those test results were supposed to come within a day. Then it became a few days. Now it’s been several weeks.

What’s the hangup? According to New York Magazine, the ID plate that should have been attached to the inboard edge of the flaperon is missing. This plate, affixed to all 777 flaperons, ought to contain a serial number linking the part to MH370. Its absence has not only stymied the verification process, it’s resulted in other aspects of the wing segment coming under (perhaps excessive) scrutiny.

For instance, the flaperon was covered in barnacles. Barnacles everywhere! And people are freaking out about it. Barnacles all over seems to suggest the wing segment spent the last several months suspended beneath the ocean surface. But how?

Quote:While it’s easy to imagine a submarine or a scuba diver hovering peacefully 10 or 20 feet under the surface of the water, this is not something that inanimate objects are capable of doing on their own: Either they are more buoyant than water, in which case they float, or they are less buoyant, in which case they sink.

So, how could a six-foot-long chunk of airplane remain suspended beneath the ocean surface for a long period of time? At this point, there aren’t any simple, common-sense answers; the range of possible explanations at this point runs from as-yet-unidentified natural processes to purposeful intervention by conspirators.

There’s certainly a logical explanation for all of this, and we’ll find it eventually — perhaps we’ll even learn a thing or two about barnacle ecology in the process! In the meanwhile, the sleuths of the internet are sure to come up with all sorts of outlandish origin stories for the untagged flaperon. And the fate of flight MH370 remains as mysterious as ever.

Which Ben Sandilands (c/o Planetalking) posted on & has since received much excellent commentary on... Wink

Quote:MH370 wing part mystery defies resolution

Ben Sandilands | Aug 29, 2015 11:29AM

Children once thought their parents on MH370 might come back

The New York Magazine has published a succinct article as to why the wing part of a Boeing 777 washed up on La Réunion in the west Indian Ocean late in July continues to defy positive identification as having come from missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

It is based in part on another report in a less famous miracle of surviving quality journalism, the small circulation La Dépêche in Toulouse, which is where the action is when it comes to the military laboratory where the so called flaperon from the wide body jet was sent for examination by the public prosecutor’s office in Paris.

French nationals resident in Paris were among the 239 people on board the jet on 7 March 2014 when it disappeared on a flight between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing, and in French law their presumed deaths are subject to a criminal investigation.

However, the blunt summary for the lack of positive identification of the part is that to some extent Malaysia Airlines had stopped chronicling with exhaustive accuracy the history of every component of its 777 fleet, which includes not just date of manufacture or source (an important issue in these times of fake or bogus aircraft parts) but installation, maintenance, any removals, repairs and even use as a replacement for previous identical or near identical parts.

Removing the costly and obviously unnecessary burden of such tiresome compliance with the regulations (where they exist) or even good housekeeping is quite popular according to some sources among airlines run by ignorant bean counters, although one hesitates to suggest that this might possibly have been the case with Malaysia Airlines.

If Malaysia Airlines couldn’t be bothered making more than cursory calls to the satellite phone in the cockpit of the missing jet on the night it disappeared, or even contacting the multitude of ships that were under possible paths it could have taken while in Malaysian waters why would such matters of parts numbers or inventory management even cross its collective mind?

It was after all, just a 777 with 239 people on board. Back to bed, yawn!

This hideous farce and the indications of a lack of disclosure and candor and above all care for the lives of its those on the Malaysia Airlines 777 by the airline’s management and Malaysian authorities sits badly with the spectacle of the country’s embattled PM Najib Razak deliberately misleading the media about what experts had found in relation to the flaperon on the morning that the Paris deputy prosecutor gave a press conference concerning the testing of the component.

There is no conceivable excuse for the Prime Minister of Malaysia to publicly get things wrong in such a manner. Doesn’t the man have any respect for diligence and accuracy in his public statements? Which raises the similar carelessness with the truth of his transport minister, Liow Tiong Lai, in his insisting that parts of windows and other components had been recovered from La Réunion when they hadn’t.

We are not being told the truth by Kuala Lumpur. What is the truth? What did Malaysia know on the night and morning of the disappearance of MH370? Why didn’t Malaysia Airlines keep full records of the history of the parts of the 777 involved in this mystery?
As the NY Mag notes, maddening implausibility is something that persists in every twist and turn of the MH370 mystery.

At around about the same time there was a breaking news story emanating from the Geomar Helmholtz Centre for Oceanography, in Kiel Germany - MH370 Update: Experts Say Search For Missing Malaysian Airliner Could Be Focussing On Wrong Area

Quote:...A wing part from a Boeing 777 aircraft that was discovered on the French island of Réunion "probably came from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean," Villwock reportedly said. He added that the area from where the flaperon originated is thousands of miles from the previously presumed crash site at 35 degrees latitude south of the Equator. The experts came to this conclusion after using a model of ocean currents to guess its drift path, according to reports.

The Geomar institute reportedly said that it will give details on its findings at a news conference on Tuesday...

Yes I know yet another group of experts making assertions & theories on limited publicly available information or hard evidence... Dodgy

A point that Ben makes (amongst others) in his latest post on the subject:

Quote:MH370 theories might take a new drift from German study

Ben Sandilands | Aug 31, 2015 2:46PM |

False MH 370 finds on La Reunion, collected after the flaperon recovery

Tuesday morning German time several researchers from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel are to hold a media conference suggesting that the search area for the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 needs to be shifted closer to the equator and middle of the Indian Ocean.

They have already briefed the German media on what their conclusions are with the most detailed of these reports appearing on Spiegel Online, and not unreasonably at this early hour, only in German.

This means they must have something substantial and yet unsaid to add to their findings, which appear to be based on photographic identification of the types of barnacles seen on a Boeing 777 flaperon, a part of the trailing edge of the wing, which was retrieved from the shores of La Réunion in the west Indian Ocean late in July.

They are reported as arguing that those particular growths have such localised marine habitations that they could not have come from the priority search area in the southern Indian Ocean SW of Perth, even though some of the reports quote them as saying that zone is at 35 degrees S, which in incorrect.

Whether their findings cause the currents of controversy to flow further away from the vastness of the sea floor search priority zone or back toward it remains to be seen. The researchers are attached to a prestigious marine research facility with much to lose if they get it wrong, and what they say in their detailed study obviously needs to be peer reviewed with those additional opinions as well as their own work considered very carefully by the Malaysia directed and Australia managed search.

The search for MH370, a 777-200ER which disappeared with 239 people on board on 8 March 2014 on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, relies critically on evidence that the jet flew for seven hours 39 minutes before it sent its last ‘ping’ signals to a geo-stationary satellite which had to be about 44 degrees above the horizon in relation to the position of the airliner at that moment. The line that connects all of the points from which the satellite would be at that elevation is referred to as the seventh arc, and in theory, it stretches for thousands of kilometres across the middle to southern reaches of the south Indian Ocean.

If those elements are bogus or mistaken the south Indian Ocean search loses credibility. Similarly, if the wing part is conclusively ruled out as having come from MH370, the validity of the sea floor search would be undermined and dreadful suspicions about how the part came to be hastily portrayed as coming from MH370 by the Malaysian authorities would gain momentum.

The provenance of the recovered wing part hasn’t been established.

However the validation of the flaperon as having come from MH370 would not on its own confirm that the sunk sections of the jet are where the searchers are looking. According to the JACC and ATSB, the flaperon’s recovery from the French island is consistent with revised CSIRO drift modelling as to where floating debris could have been taken by ocean currents in the time available.

The GEOMAR paper, based on preliminary media reports, contradicts that finding.

Quote:"..The standards of proof for assertions about where MH370 is or what might have caused it to disappear and crash, have to be very high. So far, they haven’t been met..."

The bit in bold...AMEN to that Angel

MTF..P2

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Peetwo - 09-01-2015

Off the German GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel:

Quote:Where is MH370?
Simulations by oceanographers from Kiel provide further insights into the possible location of the crash

1 September .2015 / Kiel. For the past 16 months extensive search has been underway for the missing Boeing 777 of Malaysia Airlines (MH370) in the Indian Ocean. After a piece of debris was discovered a few weeks ago on the island of La Réunion, Kiel oceanographers have attempted to trace the origin of the flaperon that presumably belongs to the missing Boeing. The results of their recently completed computer model simulations show that the debris found on La Réunion probably originates from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. However, uncertainties in further restricting the area are still very large.

Flight MH370 that disappeared from radar screens on 8 March 2014 seemed to have been ripped off the face of the Earth. Not even a small piece of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 was discovered despite an intensive search in the eastern Indian Ocean off the coast of Australia. The discovery at the end of July 2015 of a part belonging to an aircraft’s wing brought renewed hope. The flaperon was found several thousand kilometres away from the suspected crash site on the island La Réunion. Meanwhile, it is almost certain that this part belongs to MH370. Will the flaperon be the key to localize the crash site of the demised aircraft? Immediately after the discovery, oceanographers from Kiel started to track back the possible drift of the flaperon within a computer model to narrow down the area of the crash. The results show that the crash site could be found further north than previously thought; but also how difficult it will be to localize the aircraft, even with this new piece of information.

Dr. Jonathan Durgadoo and Prof. Dr. Arne Biastoch from GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel used a state-of-the-art ocean model in combination with observational data. This provides a coherent realistic dataset for their drift analyses to determine the possible origin of the flaperon. To do so, they release virtual particles around La Réunion and compute their trajectories back in time. "Of course it does not make much sense just to track only a few particles within the model," Dr. Durgadoo explains. "We have traced back almost two million 'virtual' particles over a period of 16 months," Durgadoo continues. "For each month back, we subsequently calculated the probable region of the particles positions."

From this exercise, a very large region in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean emerged as the most likely area where the flaperon could originate. It extends from the western coasts of Sumatra and Java, about 6,000 kilometers from La Réunion. "Qualitatively, the results correspond to my initial estimates, they are now confirmed by the complex flow analysis", says Professor Biastoch. In addition, all particles originate from a region equatorward of 30oS. "Our findings therefore show that the ongoing search southwest of Australia might be too far south" Dr. Durgadoo comments. However, he admits that on the basis of only a single piece of debris, a more precise delimitation of the area is currently not possible. "Finding more pieces of MH370 debris would be necessary in order to make more precise statements," Professor Biastoch summarizes. In the coming weeks, in order to further refine their statements, the researchers want to consider other processes, such as wind and waves, which are possibly also relevant to further refine the analysis.

Figure in printable resolution:
Possible locations of model particles that originate from the eastern Indian Ocean and reach the island of La Réunion 16 months later. The areas with the highest probabilities are color coded. Source: GEOMAR.

Contact:
Press ReleasesDr. Andreas Villwock (GEOMAR, Communications & Media), Phone: +49-431 600-2802 presse(at)geomar.de
Files:pm_MH370_movie_en.mp4663 Kpm_MH370_movie_en.avi828 Kpm_2015_44_MH370-e_01.pdf392 K

MTF?- definitely...P2 Tongue

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Gobbledock - 09-02-2015

Somebody will have to translate that information into mi mi mi so that our resident 'pooh whisperer' and super sleuth Beaker can understand it!

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - aussie500 - 09-02-2015

I am starting to think all these experts are deliberately hiding something. That supposed drift model from GEOMAR looks to be the biggest load of rubbish to me. So why has Indonesia not been inundated with debris? Why have they ignored the most likely currents coming from further south just to try and further confuse things. And what delusion of grandeur has got them even trying to move the search north, where debris would have washed up last year! Is this lot in cahoots with that lot of drift experts the ATSB first hired, who said the debris would wash up on West Sumatra, which was highly unlikely. There is nothing to indicate MH370 dropped that far north. While there was an area north where the debris could have vanished west, that drift model does not show that, does not to me seem to show any set area, but is just a general bit of misinformation showing where debris that originates in a select large area might end up on reunion Island, but would have actually appeared else where first. I doubt reading their no doubt long winded and confusing report will change my opinion of that drift model, but will read it anyway, if I ever find it.

Ignore them, they are either another lot joining the MH370 media circus for a bit of attention. Or another lot out to deliberately confuse things. Not that the ATSB needs a hand with that, they can stuff it up with no help at all as they have already shown. The false ping debacle and the misleading drift model fiasco are just their most obvious mistakes. Not going back to the search AMSA deserted would be another in my opinion. Why deliberately avoid the area most likely to have what they are looking for?

I find the report to go with that GEOMAR bit of foolery, I will have a few more words to say.

Edit
Preliminary report seems to have vanished, does anyone have a copy, in English or German, preferably English. I have doubts GEOMAR are going to have the nerve to release a full report, if they are already running for cover.

A quick google search using GEOMAR and misleading as key words netted this.
http://notrickszone.com/2014/12/21/caught-red-handed-german-scientists-expose-geomar-institute-conscious-deception-of-the-public-on-arctic-sea-ice-trend-misleading-international-media/

I will wait, someone who saw the preliminary report or attended the media circus is bound to pick the GEOMAR guess parading as scientific theory to bits. We already have people getting suspicions.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2015/09/01/german-researchers-go-vague-about-their-new-mh370-theory/

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - FelineNut - 09-03-2015

Hey Aussie....
On a serious note, So why wasn't Indonesia inundated with debris on QZ8501 also?

Have you thought about that question with that in mind?
Cheers.

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Gobbledock - 09-03-2015

even Freescale, China, NSA and dirty secrets

Messrs FeelMyNut and Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi, I wouldn't call myself a run of the mill conspiracy theorist, but there are still just too many possibilities to discount. I still find it interesting how some potential 'high level targets' were on the flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. It is possible that the aircraft met foul play so as to keep 20 employees of Freescale Semiconductor from arriving in Beijing, because they held U.S. intelligence secrets the CIA feared would fall into the hands of the Chinese government.

It is also rumoured that the Freescale employees had been working on a drone smaller than a housefly that could be used in biochemical warfare. High level technology that in itself could be a game changer in the scheme of things. There were billions and billions of dollars worth of intellectual technology property of an open patent on that plane in the form of Freescale and others, so it could be corporations or nations willing to 'disappear' the plane for that intelligence. Also, until that patent was granted the ownership of that patent is 20% for five parties, four of those to individuals and one to Freescale. Four days after MH370 vanished, a highly valuable patent was approved by the Patent Office. Four of the five patent holders are Chinese nationals working for Freescale Semiconductor, owned by Blackstone, for which surprise surprise the Rothschilds are a board member.

It gets better though - there was also the American IBM Technical Storage Executive for Malaysia, a man working in mass storage aggregation for Freescale and whom was even named by the Snowden papers for providing their services to assist the NSA in surveilling the Chinese. Add to him are this group of I.T related people working for a global leader in embedded processing solutions (embedded smart phone technology and defense contracting) who were all together on the same plane that disappeared

Coincidence? Perhaps. A good yarn? Maybe so. Conspiracy lunacy? Sure, maybe. A highly technical act of criminality by very well connected society power-brokers? Well why not!

But isn't there a saying that where there is smoke there is fire? And if this was to be the case, why not have the worlds dumbest lapdogs (Australian government) and the worlds dumbest aviation super sleuths (ATSBeaker) assigned to take the lead in a completely fruitless exercise while they don't even realise it??

Just sayin........

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - aussie500 - 09-03-2015

(09-03-2015, 01:43 AM)FelineNut Wrote: Hey Aussie....
On a serious note, So why wasn't Indonesia inundated with debris on QZ8501 also?

Have you thought about that question with that in mind?
Cheers.

QZ8501 fell in the Java sea, at that time of year the current goes one way, east, you did not need to be a current expert to work out where that debris was going. Although probably a fair bit got past the search teams, the current was so fast. But having several headlands (north) and South Sulawesi in the way ensured some would wash up. The current was not going towards Java. QZ8501 stayed relatively intact, lost the ends, belly split off, but wings stayed attached, look how much debris floated away.

There was nothing near MH370, not for thousands of km, it would have spread across the SIO before it got any where near Indonesia, and the currents on that side of Indonesia make it pretty hard for debris to wash up on West Sumatra, it would go west, into the gyre or north and still get snagged by a current going west before getting to West Sumatra. That first ATSB drift model was always suspect. And some debris could have gone east if MH370 fell further south, in the original AMSA search area where the aerial search teams saw debris.

(09-03-2015, 11:00 AM)Gobbledock Wrote: even Freescale, China, NSA and dirty secrets

Messrs FeelMyNut and Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi, I wouldn't call myself a run of the mill conspiracy theorist, but there are still just too many possibilities to discount. I still find it interesting how some potential 'high level targets' were on the flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. It is possible that the aircraft met foul play so as to keep 20 employees of Freescale Semiconductor from arriving in Beijing, because they held U.S. intelligence secrets the CIA feared would fall into the hands of the Chinese government.

It is also rumoured that the Freescale employees had been working on a drone smaller than a housefly that could be used in biochemical warfare. High level technology that in itself could be a game changer in the scheme of things. There were billions and billions of dollars worth of intellectual technology property of an open patent on that plane in the form of Freescale and others, so it could be corporations or nations willing to 'disappear' the plane for that intelligence. Also, until that patent was granted the ownership of that patent is 20% for five parties, four of those to individuals and one to Freescale. Four days after MH370 vanished, a highly valuable patent was approved by the Patent Office. Four of the five patent holders are Chinese nationals working for Freescale Semiconductor, owned by Blackstone, for which surprise surprise the Rothschilds are a board member.

It gets better though - there was also the American IBM Technical Storage Executive for Malaysia, a man working in mass storage aggregation for Freescale and whom was even named by the Snowden papers for providing their services to assist the NSA in surveilling the Chinese. Add to him are this group of I.T related people working for a global leader in embedded processing solutions (embedded smart phone technology and defense contracting) who were all together on the same plane that disappeared

Coincidence? Perhaps. A good yarn? Maybe so. Conspiracy lunacy? Sure, maybe. A highly technical act of criminality by very well connected society power-brokers? Well why not!

But isn't there a saying that where there is smoke there is fire? And if this was to be the case, why not have the worlds dumbest lapdogs (Australian government) and the worlds dumbest aviation super sleuths (ATSBeaker) assigned to take the lead in a completely fruitless exercise while they don't even realise it??

Just sayin........

The Freescale Semiconductor stuff seems more rubbish to me, put out there to confuse things and try and make it look like a hijacking attempt. I am no legal whiz but pretty sure any IP rights would revert to the NOK of the inventors listed on the copyright, they could not be claimed by any surviving original creators with no right to claim the work as solely theirs. Freescale Semiconductor owned the patent, killing off all the inventors would not change the ownership, the company owned the patent. There is not 20% of anything going to anyone, it all went to the company who owned the patent, Freescale. Rothschild does not own a publicly listed company with multiple shareholders. The employees of Freescale lost on MH370 were Malaysian and Chinese, who worked in China and Malaysia and were on company business, not like they were doing anything unusual, why single out that flight? Just to get a bunch of engineers. If there was anything involving USA security, why would they outsource it to a Chinese test facility in the first place? And these were hardly high profile targets.

Peidong Wang, Zhijun Chen, Zhihong Cheng and Li Ying do not appear on the MH370 list of passengers. The patent in question is hardly some breakthrough in microchip technology, worth killing people for. Seems a production improvement, a way to get more dies from a wafer. They are not making a new sort of chip. It is not a radar gadget, not specific to anything in a radar gadget, although they do use chips, as would lots of other things. All 4 inventors of the process worked at the Suzhou test facility in China, you can see that on the patent. At least two of them still seem to be busy, Zhihong Chen and Peidong Wang have applied with another Suzhou group for a more recent patent. All 4 still have linkedin profiles, although dead people have been known to still have those.

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Gobbledock - 09-03-2015

Aussie;

Freescale’s shareholders include The Carlyle Group, whose past advisers have included George Bush Sr and John Major. Some of the company’s previous clients also include the construction firm owned by the family of Osama bin Laden - the Saudi Binladin Group. Jacob Rothschild owns the company Blackstone, which in turn owns the company Freescale Semiconductor. So there is a Rothschild connection.

And yes, it is just a theory, one of many theories which include pilot suicide, landing at Diego Garcia, E.T, terrorism, an accident, and who knows maybe even a BJ in the flight deck that went wrong!

Just a theory old son.

Relax, take it easy.
Gobbles

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - FelineNut - 09-03-2015

(09-03-2015, 10:34 PM)aussie500 Wrote:
(09-03-2015, 01:43 AM)FelineNut Wrote: Hey Aussie....
On a serious note, So why wasn't Indonesia inundated with debris on QZ8501 also?

Have you thought about that question with that in mind?
Cheers.

"QZ8501 fell in the Java sea, at that time of year the current goes one way, east, you did not need to be a current expert to work out where that debris was going. Although probably a fair bit got past the search teams, the current was so fast. But having several headlands (north) and South Sulawesi in the way ensured some would wash up. The current was not going towards Java. QZ8501 stayed relatively intact, lost the ends, belly split off, but wings stayed attached, look how much debris floated away.

There was nothing near MH370, not for thousands of km, it would have spread across the SIO before it got any where near Indonesia, and the currents on that side of Indonesia make it pretty hard for debris to wash up on West Sumatra, it would go west, into the gyre or north and still get snagged by a current going west before getting to West Sumatra. That first ATSB drift model was always suspect. And some debris could have gone east if MH370 fell further south, in the original AMSA search area where the aerial search teams saw debris."

Whatever floats your boat and butters your biscuit. The Current Moves East in Java anyways.

The Winds at that time of year shift but The Current flows East and from the North West and Outflows East and South Java Sea as it flows annually. AUwtf?

Regardless, You missed the point of the question being where was the debris on "any" coast from QZ8501.

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Ziggy - 09-04-2015

As I ponder about the whole disgraceful mess of the MH370 search, the disrespect to the people and families of those on board the aircraft, I need ask why? As does the rest of the world.

What has the Human Race come to. Do we want to live on this planet in Harmony or continue to battle. Look into the night sky. No-where else to go.
All the greedy arseholes that believe they are immortal, you're not.
So why create so much tension, arguments and absolute bullshit media?

Over the past couple of years I have spoken to a very "Senior" fellow from the NTSB on various occasions. Sent him everything (legally) that I had regarding the Pel-Air ditching. Case re-opened.

So, early this year, I spoke with the same fellow from the NTSB.
He was at an airport, waiting to catch a plane to Kazakhstan for a week. He made it very clear that he was going there for a "job" as the county was repeated to me a few times.

Has anyone any clue why the head honcho from the NTSB would be spending a week in Kazakhstan?

Anybody?

Show some Respect to those who lost their lives you bastards that lie and fabricate.
Amongst the copious amount of people involved with investigating this sad tragedy, a few good men MUST know the truth.

Stop playing ego games and just tell the BLOODY truth.

That would be too simple wouldn't it.

As it would show the World what stupid, pathetic morons do when faced with a controversy.

Enter the ATSB to the World stage....say no more!

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - FelineNut - 09-04-2015

(09-04-2015, 12:29 AM)Ziggy Wrote: Show some Respect to those who lost their lives you bastards that lie and fabricate.
Amongst the copious amount of people involved with investigating this sad tragedy, a few good men MUST know the truth.

Stop playing ego games and just tell the BLOODY truth.

That would be too simple wouldn't it.

As it would show the World what stupid, pathetic morons do when faced with a controversy.

Enter the ATSB to the World stage....say no more!

Thank you Ziggy.

Victory shall be mine said the Lord and so it shall be in the Lords name... Amen

Feel the heat of the brimstone, the Truth Matters.

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - Gobbledock - 09-04-2015

Feel the heat of the brimstone, the Truth Matters.

Indeed. That's why Kharon, aka 'the Ferryman', monitors such matters as aviation travesties. He is always standing by with the Styx River Houseboat (which incidentally is always fuelled, serviced and stocked with passenger treats just in case an urgent call goes out to pick up a passenger). It's one of the niceties of doing the job he does (even Gobbledock has been allowed to leave the engine room and sit in the wheelhouse with the ferryman on occasion), picking up passengers and observing the panic in their eyes as they pay for their life's sins.

Karma is a bitch. Read it and weep it dross.

TOOT TOOT

RE: Less Noise and More Signal - FelineNut - 09-04-2015

(09-04-2015, 05:36 PM)Gobbledock Wrote: Karma is a bitch. Read it and weep it dross.

We may be getting a choc frog for that? Cheers mate!