A twiddle for discussion

31 Jan

When Sherlock Holmes said:-It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.‘ – He may well have been talking about the brouhaha surrounding MH 370.  There are as many persuasive, carefully worked out, ‘supported’ theories floating about in cyber-space as there are looney-tune ones.   The fact that the ‘media’ don’t report any longer, just rehash and repeat statements, without questioning helps the white noise created by the information vacuum.  Have a look at Paper-Li, the same story (give or take) on every banner, a slightly edited press release, served up 100 different ways.

Any analysis of the ‘credible’ independent working groups offerings is an interesting study, standing alone.  The same ‘facts’ all woven into different theory, with some elegant mathematics thrown in to support.  The great thing about numbers is that like the camera, they can be manipulated to support the deception.  So we find the start of calculation data speculatively, albeit honestly, with all good intentions being ‘guesstimated’.  Some of the reasoning is so sound and you could easily find a plausible, persuasive version to adopt as your very own.  I have said, the ET encounter works for me; of course it ain’t real, but, whimsically, it pleases me.  The arguments put up by the IG, Legerwood, and the like all have sound, sensible, reasoned rationale, supporting the argument and they do provide for lively debate: BUT, when push comes to shove, that’s all they are.  To formulate a theory you must be able to find the ‘right’ starting point if your calculations are to be ‘nice’, just like navigation; if you identify a fix as ABC when, in fact it is DEF; you are position uncertain, if not lost.

Holmes also stated – ‘How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?’ -.  I believe it’s time for the ‘thinking’ man (or manette) to dust off the thinking tackle and set to work, eliminating that which is impossible; or nearly so.

For example – CI – “Previously, when questioned on why MH370 was not intercepted although its identity could not be ascertained at the time, Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak replied that air defence officers were certain that the aircraft was not hostile. This was because although the identity of the aircraft was unknown, it behaved like a commercial airliner, he said.”

Using the statement above, I could with very little effort, ‘workshop’ it to suit our movie script, for it supports the theory that the aircraft was always seen acting in a routine manner like any other airliner trudging down the airways at Silly o’clock am.  Routine systems cock up, not conspiracy.  All done deliberately to avoid drawing any ‘serious’ attention, whatsoever.   But I digress: today it’s debunking the ridiculous.

Firstly lets have a look at one of the more outrageous myths clinging to the tail end of the mystery.  Suicide and/or religious fervour.  For the diehard suicide believers; answer me but one question; and don’t say suicides are not rational, that, like the Nuremberg defence is a crock.– WHY go to all the trouble of waiting for the hand over (Good night) then reverse tracking, carefully navigating along the FIR boundaries only to ditch in the middle of nowhere SOI?  The Marianas trench and the whole, wide, wild Pacific, with little to fly over except ocean from Indonesia to South America was available without all of bother of back tracking and masking and camouflaging to appear as normal routine traffic while taking advantage of the four hour head start.    The hand off  – between one FIR and the next was ‘casual’ and routine.  Wait a while, then from Northern control– “you still got 370 ?” – Southern control “Ah, Nope – you got him 30 minutes ago”.  Both together, after a while “Oh crap! – where is it”.   (Aside), I do wonder when the console operators changed seats for a rest break; would after releasing the last aircraft on screen not be a fine time?.

Let’s give control an hour to confirm no coms. no contact, another hour to work out where it should be, and do all the usual things for lost communications; another hour to realise the aircraft has ‘disappeared’, round up the brass and tell the tale – there is your four hour start for the ‘missing’ aircraft: four x 460 = 1760 nms clear head start on any search effort, which must start along track from the last, confirmed radar sighting – not from a radio report.  If you want to find the aircraft, you must clearly define where and when it was first ‘lost’, with absolute certainty.

So, to reiterate – why all the back tracking?, what’s wrong with a no fuss swim in the mid pacific over the deepest water in the world? – if you wanted to do ‘the water thing’ that is.

So little we do know for certain sure; and, so much we don’t.   But Nope: on balance, the crew suicide/ hi-jack scenario is #Bollocks for my AUD$00.20.

Bring it back ET, you know you want to..Big Grin…Toot-toot..Wink..

Kharon

 

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